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Innovation to Impact

Seeing Futures: The Long Now Approach

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No one can see the future, but we can gain a glimpse of what might come and how what we are doing today might take us there by using this technique or tool called The Long Now.

The Long Now involves taking an idea that might be on the horizon or emerging and envisioning what it might look like when adopted and carried into the future. The approach is inspired by long-term thinking and gets us to frame ideas that might be attractive, threatening or unclear today and builds a future for them over time.

Designing with the Long Now

Identify a trend that is emerging and is likely to affect the near-future (e.g., 6-12 months). This could be anything within a STEEP-V (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political or Values-based trends) framework or something similar.

Now imagine that phenomenon coming into being. This means that children born today will only know the world with this in their lives. They and everyone else will grow up with, interact with, adapt to, adopt, and work with this ‘thing’ in their lives.

Imagine what kind of barriers, enablers, and circumstances will accompany this new thing.

Then imagine what it will look and feel like in five year increments as it evolves along.

To illustrate, consider those people who first encountered the Internet in the early 1990’s and then what it looked like as the decade moved on to the dot-com boom and bust, the dawn of social media, the rise of the app and mobile handset and so on. That’s a retrospective look. What you are doing with The Long Now is creating a prospective, visionary look.

Sketch out a series of snapshots at 5-year intervals that allow you to highlight and uncover ways in which this idea will interact with the systems — technological, social, cultural, and environmental — around it. (Five Year intervals are chosen because it’s enough time to see change, but close enough to be able to stitch together patterns of plausible development between them)

What this approach can do is help see threats, opportunities, and identify possible pitfalls, benefits, and choices that could affect the design of something moving forward. It also is useful as a means of assessing the plausibility or viability of something that is emerging. Could it be a fad or does it have the means to be adopted into the fabric of everyday life?

Taking The Long Now approach provides a small window into a much larger, unknown world ahead to help strategize, design, and anticipate possible futures.

Predicting Next Year’s Top Story

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Foresight can involve complex data gathering, sensemaking, and design and also be something as simple as developing the headline for next year’s news.

This simple technique can get your organization started on futures thinking and provide a way to connect the present situation with trends that you are seeing in your industry and the world to strategy and aspirations. This technique gets you to imagine the headlines of the future (what people are writing or saying about your enterprise) and walking back from that or projecting forward to fill in the steps that led you to that outcome.

Setting the Stage

This is an activity that is best done as a group anywhere from 4 to 12 people and can be done in as little as an hour, although it can be done over a longer period of time in single or multiple sessions if you wish to go deeper into the assumptions and models for the future.

It’s important to frame the exercise by choosing whether you want headlines for the organization or a specific project or product. It doesn’t matter who these imaginary headlines are to be written by (e.g., journalists, industry professionals), however, it does help to imagine what context they are to be written (e.g., news media, business press, industry news outlets, professional associations, peers). Make whatever context you pick clear even if it is in multiple contexts.

Next, set a time horizon for the headlines sometime within the next 6 to 12 months.

Lastly, this is often used to frame positive outcomes. However, after you’ve determined what success looks like it is worth considering repeating the exercise at a later date (e.g., one week later) with the converse: focusing on headlines that report failures, disasters, or problems. This can help your team see threats as well as possibilities.

The materials you will need are pieces of paper (preferably sticky notes because they are easily portable and can be re-arranged) and a whiteboard or flipchart/newsprint sheets of paper and markers for a facilitator (who can be external or a member of the team) and the team/participants.

Activity

Individually, have participants brainstorm headlines they imagine for the time horizon you have set. Give them about 5-10 minutes and ask participants to strive for volume — lots of ideas — over quality.

As a group, post together (with stickies) or share the ideas that individuals have generated. This can be done by having individuals post up their sticky notes on a wall and then later organized or by doing successive round-robin reporting where everyone presents a single idea in as many rounds as there are ideas.

We suggest having the group vote on headlines that they like, elicit the strongest reactions (positive or negative), or are the most provocative. Aim for 3-5 headlines. With these headlines explore as a group some of the assumptions that are in place for this headline to come true. The aim is to answer the question: what would have to happen for this to become a real headline?

Why?

This activity helps you set and frame a goal for your organization, project or product. It can help elicit information about what kind of aspirations, assumptions, and ideas that your team has about what you are doing. It will also allow to identify what kind of relationships, resources, or facilitators are needed to get from where you are to where you wish to go over the time horizon you’ve picked.

If you do the negative case headline, this technique can help frame what kind of necessary activities are required for success and where they can possibly go wrong. it will allow you to identify threats and risks associated with what you’re planning to help account for that in your plan.

This simple technique is powerful and can be used in a single session, with multiple units, or as part of a planning exercise and the dividends are great. It’s fun, creative, and informative.

If you want to see more about what this can do, contact us and we’ll gladly help you set up a foresight scan and strategic plan for your project or organization based on this kind of futures thinking.

Forecasting

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You might not have a crystal ball, but you can still envision the near-future by using a simple strategy called forecasting to plot your strategy for the coming months. Here is how.

Fundamentals

A forecast is a data-driven prediction of possible outcomes that can be used to generate scenarios. The first item required is data. This can be qualitative, quantitative, or mixed and from primary or secondary sources. Most often, forecasts are a combination of these.

Checklists have been found to be useful tools to help organize data that contribute to forecasts. Pull together those sources you have and then organize them in a manner that allows you to build a narrative — a story — of what has happened to allow you to better anticipate what might happen.

Forecasts work when there is some expectation of a linear progression from time to time (with some variation). Time series data — data gathered on the same topic/issue/item multiple times over in succession — is among the most popular sources of data. This will allow you to see patterns and spot trends that lead you to now.

Add Imagination

Once you’ve developed a model of the present situation, the next stage is to imagine what might happen in the near future. Forecasts are generally useful for predicting near-term (e.g., 3-, 6-, or 12-months) outcomes and are less useful for longer-term assessments.

Next match data from other sources — social trends, government policy documents, census data — to create scenarios. For example, seasonal trends can change the near term. ‘Seasons’ like ‘back-to-school’, holidays, flu trends, weather changes can all affect how present data can mislead us for future activities. The COVID-19 pandemic provided an example of the various ways in which an economy can re-open, a healthcare system can respond, and what ‘back-to-school’ looks like.

From these data points, work together as a team (this is always better done in groups because different people will see data differently) we can start to envision possible futures and outcomes.

Look for amplifiers and dampeners. What things might make an existing trend more pronounced and what might dampen that trend, or extinguish it altogether. In discussion as a group you can

Structuring Forecasts: Tips & Tricks

Begin your group work together with a few simple ‘rules’ to guide your discussion. Start with limiting any feedback or critique of ideas at the start. You want to explore why something could happen, not assess the likelihood of such activities at first. This opens our minds up to unlikely scenarios.

It’s helpful to have someone on the team who can play the role of the ‘black hat‘ – the person whose role is to illustrate why something won’t work. Edward DeBono’s ‘thinking style’ roles can be useful here in helping us structure a way to look at the data and ideas from different points of view. Building on these different perspectives, it’s important to build a variety of scenarios and attach a level of anticipated likelhood to them. (e.g., high, medium, or low) and timing (e.g., imminent, soon, long-term, etc..)

Build out as many scenarios as the data suggests might be useful. This is often three to five, but rarely nine or ten.

From these scenarios, ‘walk them back’ to the present using an approach of asking “what happened just before X” and repeating that of each answer until you find yourself at the present. This allows you to start building pathways of potential causality.

While it may be that none of the scenarios come into reality, there are likely to be pathways that resemble them. When you find these, your team can use those to examine the assumptions that you hold with each one of them and use that to develop a strategy around them to better increase your anticipatory awareness and adaptive capacity to learn and act.

Taken together, this method can help you to see what might be coming and plan accordingly. It is a powerful means to explore near futures and design your organization to be better suited to living in them rather than having to play catch-up.

To go even deeper, the Future Today Institute has developed this useful ‘Funnel’ model to guide forecasting that might be useful to you as well.

FTI-Funnel ToolDownload

If you want to develop forecasts, contact us. We can help you see what might be coming and design your team to better meet it.